Technology
An AI forecaster based on the language model GPT-4 can predict the outcome of future events more accurately than single humans. In some cases, it can even outperform the “wisdom of crowds”
By Alex Wilkins
26 March 2024
An artificial intelligence can predict the future as well as groups of people for events like political elections or economic trends.
People are notoriously bad at predicting the future, at least on an individual level. But websites called prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of future events, have demonstrated that the wisdom of crowds leads to better guesses. The average, crowdsourced predictions, which take into account many people’s forecasts, tend to be…
Advertisem*nt
Receive a weekly dose of discovery in your inbox! We'll also keep you up to date with New Scientist events and special offers.
To continue reading, subscribe today with our introductory offers
No commitment, cancel anytime*
Offer ends 2nd of July 2024.
*Cancel anytime within 14 days of payment to receive a refund on unserved issues.
Inclusive of applicable taxes (VAT)
or
Existing subscribers
Advertisem*nt
More from New Scientist
Explore the latest news, articles and features
Technology
AI can spot parasites in stool samples to help diagnose infections
News
Free
Technology
Watch mini humanoid robots showing off their football skills
News
Free
Technology
How AI mathematicians might finally deliver human-level reasoning
Features
Subscriber-only
Technology
AI pop-ups can help you stop doomscrolling on your phone
News
Subscriber-only
Popular articles
Trending New Scientist articles
1
Two brilliant new novels from Adrian Tchaikovsky show his range
2
A bacterium has evolved into a new cellular structure inside algae
3
How AI mathematicians might finally deliver human-level reasoning
4
Mathematician wins Turing award for harnessing randomness
5
Watch mini humanoid robots showing off their football skills
6
Are you languishing in life? Here’s how to find your purpose again
7
One of the biggest mysteries of cosmology may finally be solved
8
How Peter Higgs revealed the forces that hold the universe together
9
Why you may have a stealth liver disease and what to do about it
10
The multiverse could be much, much bigger than we ever imagined
Advertisem*nt
